Edition 011 · April 15, 2026 · Trend Analysis

$220,731 in January. $168,753 in April. Same market, same cars — just different months. That $52,000 gap is what the average 993 loses in value when spring arrives.

The conventional wisdom says buy in winter, sell in spring. Fewer buyers in the cold months, more competition in driving season. Makes sense. Except it's only half right — and the half that's wrong is the expensive half.

I pulled two years of auction data and compared winter prices (January–February) against spring prices (March–April) across every major generation. For 993s, spring averages run 24% lower than winter. For 991.2s, 20% lower. For 991.1s, 17% lower. These are the collector-grade, appreciating, high-conviction buys. And they're the ones getting hurt by spring supply floods.

Here's the mechanism: serious buyers don't hibernate. If you want a numbers-matching 993, you're bidding in January just as hard as April. But spring brings out every seller who's been sitting on a car since October. Supply spikes. Committed buyers are already well-served. Prices soften.

So yes — spring is a buyer's market. Just not for everything.

Notable sales from the week of April 7–13, 2026:

Two things stand out this week. First, that 2024 Dakar at $405K in PTS Acid Green — with 2,184 miles and a spec that exists at the intersection of "off-road theater" and "I need this in my garage." That's a full Dakar premium over base 992 Carrera territory. The color alone moves it.

Second, the 1979 930 Turbo at $202,230 is a data point worth filing. 39K miles, Grand Prix White, sport seats. Not a headline number for a 930, but it confirms the floor is holding. These aren't sliding anymore.

A 2026 911 GTS listed on Cars & Bids at a $195K high bid did not meet reserve. Current-gen GTS owners are still anchoring high.

Spring volume is real — prices are not. March and April (2024–2025 combined) brought 317 completed Porsche auction sales versus 281 in the prior January–February window. That's 13% more inventory. Overall average prices: $139,608 in spring versus $146,994 in winter. The market is giving you more options and charging you slightly less for them — if you're shopping the right cars.

The 996 is the spring darling. Of all the major generations, the 996 is the only one where spring prices outrun winter by a meaningful margin — $41,443 average in spring versus $33,236 in winter, a 25% jump. Driving season demand for a car that's still fundamentally a daily driver. Makes sense.

Same for 997.1. Up 47% from winter average to spring — from $69,175 to $101,784. Sample sizes are smaller here, so I'd weight this loosely. But the direction is consistent: more daily-driver demand when the weather turns.

Reserve misses ticking up. This week saw the 2026 911 GTS, a 2001 996 C4, and a 2018 991.2 Carrera all fail to meet reserve on Cars & Bids. The buy-it-now mentality isn't there for asking prices set to winter conditions. Sellers who are pricing spring 2026 like it's October 2025 are learning.

Here's the full breakdown, using two years of data (2024–2025) to filter out scraping anomalies:

What I'm seeing here is a clean generational divide based on buyer profile.

The collector cars (993, 991.2, 991.1) get cheaper in spring. These are buyers who research for months, track auction histories, and don't change behavior based on calendar. They're present in winter. Then spring adds a wave of sellers who've been waiting since October — and suddenly supply outpaces the committed buyer pool. Prices soften.

The sports car / entry-luxury tier (992, 996, 997.1, 981) gets more expensive. These buyers are seasonal. When it's 60 degrees in April and they want something fun to drive on weekends, they show up. More demand, same or slightly elevated supply. Prices respond accordingly.

The actionable takeaway: If you're shopping a 993 or 991.2, stop waiting for spring to "open up the market." The market is already open — in your favor, right now. The data says January and February are when you get the deal. If you're shopping a 996, 997.1, or 981, the conventional wisdom is actually correct. Driving season creates real demand.

I said earlier this month that the 996 Turbo floor is holding. This seasonal data reinforces it. Spring is when the 996 community buys. If you're selling one, you're in the right window right now.

Auctions we're watching this week:

Reader question: "I've been watching a 991.1 Carrera S for three months. The seller keeps relisting. Should I lowball it?"

Three relistings is a motivated seller. But "lowball" is the wrong frame. Come in at a number you'd actually pay — one supported by recent comps, which right now are running lower than six months ago. The data is on your side. Use it.

Tool of the week: Hagerty Valuation Tool is free and useful for ballpark ranges. It won't tell you about seasonal patterns or platform-specific premiums — that's what we're here for — but it's a solid sanity check before you bid.

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