THE LEAD
In Q3 2025, the average 930-generation 911 sold on BaT for $138,080. In January 2026, that number was $96,625.
That's a 30% drop in six months.
I've been watching air-cooled prices closely since last summer, and for the first time in years, the trend is clearly down across all three air-cooled generations. The 964 fell from $201K to $150K. The 993 held up better — $196K to $231K — but that's propped up by a single $965K Gunther Werks outlier. Strip that out, and 993s are flat at best.
The air-cooled premium isn't gone. But it's compressing. And if you've been waiting to buy, the window might be opening.
AUCTION INTEL
Air-Cooled Price Tracker (BaT Sales)
930 Generation
Period | Sales | Avg Price | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 2025 | 19 | $138,080 | $38,250 | $239,930 |
Q4 2025 | 18 | $116,138 | $41,000 | $371,000 |
Jan 2026 | 21 | $96,625 | $26,500 | $275,930 |
Feb 1-18 | 22 | $103,348 | $38,500 | $301,000 |
964 Generation
Period | Sales | Avg Price | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 2025 | 11 | $200,996 | $39,000 | $545,000 |
Q4 2025 | 16 | $317,154 | $49,750 | $876,000 |
Jan 2026 | 9 | $150,033 | $65,964 | $297,974 |
Feb 1-18 | 5 | $120,600 | $80,500 | $166,500 |
993 Generation
Period | Sales | Avg Price | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Q3 2025 | 17 | $195,507 | $48,993 | $730,000 |
Q4 2025 | 19 | $318,407 | $12,930 | $1,130,000 |
Jan 2026 | 8 | $230,624 | $44,993 | $965,000 |
Feb 1-18 | 15 | $219,899 | $55,500 | $500,000 |
The Q4 2025 spike in 964 and 993 averages is misleading — a few six-figure outliers (an $876K 964 Turbo S, a $1.13M 993 GT2) pulled those numbers up. Strip the top 10%, and Q4 was already softening.
MARKET PULSE
930 trend: ↓ 30% from Q3 peak. Volume is up (22 sales in half of February vs 19 in all of Q3) — more supply hitting the market at lower prices.
964 trend: ↓ 40% from Q4 peak. But Q4 was inflated by outliers. Real decline is closer to 25%.
993 trend: ↓ Flat to slightly down. 993 Turbos and low-mile Carreras holding firm. Cabriolets and high-mile cars are where the softness lives.
Top sale this period: A Gunther Werks 993 Speedster at $965K (Jan 23). Remove that, and the January 993 average drops to $126K.
THE DEEP CUT
What's Driving the Correction?
Three things are happening at once.
1. The post-COVID hangover is real. Air-cooled 911s were the poster child of pandemic-era car speculation. Money was cheap, everyone wanted a "tangible asset," and 930s went from $80K cars to $140K cars in 18 months. That momentum has reversed. Interest rates are higher. Discretionary spending is tighter. The speculative buyers are gone.
2. Supply is increasing. I counted 22 930-generation cars sold on BaT in just the first 18 days of February. That's more than all of Q3 2025. When sellers see prices softening, the smart ones list early — which adds more supply, which pushes prices lower. Classic reflexive cycle.
3. Water-cooled GTs are stealing the spotlight. A 997.1 GT3 offers more performance than any air-cooled car at half the price. A 996 Turbo has a Mezger engine and 415 hp for $60K. Younger buyers — the ones with $100K-200K to spend — are increasingly choosing water-cooled performance over air-cooled nostalgia.
What to do with this: If you've been priced out of air-cooled 911s, this is the most buyer-friendly market in three years. But don't bottom-fish on project cars or modified examples. Clean, stock, well-documented cars with maintenance records are still selling at reasonable prices. The junk is where prices collapse.
PIT LANE
Auctions ending this week: A 1989 930 Turbo with 44K miles (BaT — I'd guess $130K-$150K based on recent comps), a numbers-matching 1973 911S Targa (BaT), and a 964 Carrera 2 coupe with a recent engine reseal (PCarMarket)
Prediction I'll own: Air-cooled averages will stabilize by Q2 2026 as speculative inventory works through the system. The floor for a clean 930 coupe is $85K-$95K. We're close to it now.
Tool of the week: BaT's completed auctions filter. Set "Porsche 911" + "sold" + date range, and you can cross-reference every number in this edition yourself.
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